Probability Rules

Basic Rules

RuleFormulaDescription
ComplementP(A') = 1 - P(A)Probability of NOT A occurring
AdditionP(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)Probability of A or B (or both)
MultiplicationP(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B|A)Probability of both A and B
ConditionalP(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B)Probability of A given B occurred
IndependenceP(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)A and B do not affect each other
Bayes' TheoremP(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B)Reverse conditional probability
Total ProbabilityP(B) = Σ P(B|Aᵢ) × P(Aᵢ)B over mutually exclusive events Aᵢ

Counting Rules

RuleFormulaDescription
PermutationP(n,r) = n! / (n-r)!Order matters: arrangements of r from n
CombinationC(n,r) = n! / [r!(n-r)!]Order doesn't matter: selections from n

Statistics

RuleFormulaDescription
Expected ValueE(X) = Σ xᵢ × P(xᵢ)Weighted average of outcomes
VarianceVar(X) = E(X²) - [E(X)]²Measure of spread/dispersion
Law of Large Numberslim(n→∞) (freq → P)Frequency approaches probability